The Long Emergency

"Most immediately we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as the necessities of modern life -- not to mention all of its comforts and luxuries: central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive clothing, recorded music, movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense -- you name it."

"The few Americans who are even aware that there is a gathering global-energy predicament usually misunderstand the core of the argument. That argument states that we don't have to run out of oil to start having severe problems with industrial civilization and its dependent systems. We only have to slip over the all-time production peak and begin a slide down the arc of steady depletion."

This article is a year old, and claims that some experts estimated that world oil production would peak sometime in 2005. Whether it has or not, is still up for debate, though the reality of its' consequences are frightening. The description in this article of things to come, brings to mind all of those post-apocalyptic Road Warrior style Hollywood movies of the 80s, with the only difference being that those were based on the aftermath of a thermonuclear war.

Though this was directed at an American audience, its' repercussions will obviously span the globe. As the article points out, it's folly to think that many of the propsed substitutes will be of much use, as their production is still based on an oil ecomomy. It suggests that our societies will shrink down as we will no longer be able to afford long-distance travel, which means no food or energy will be forthcoming from outside our "little villages", in any amount that we've become accustomed to. All production of all our needs will have to be made locally.

The coming world, as described here, is nothing short of doom and gloom. It doesn't offer any solutions, aside from suggesting we reinvigorate our rail systems, which use less energy and require less maintainance than our current automotive infrustructure. It's not real hard to imagine a world without ready supplies of oil, and regardless of when it begins to run out, we're going to have one hell of a time re-ajusting to living similar to the old days of the 18th and 19th centuries.

If you think it all unbelievable, and far too pessimistic, then keep in mind that this same scenario has played out over and over throught history. History is about to repeat, because just like the others of the past, we're in denial that anything so dramatic could possibly harm our great and fabulous society. Remember the old saying; "don't put all your eggs in one basket", well that's what we've done with oil. Everything we have depends on it, and we depend on everything we have. But for how long?